項目組合管理(ppt)
Project Portfolio Management An Introduction 李俊偉 November 2002 Beijing
Content
The Emergence of Project Portfolio Management
1952, Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), Harry Markowitz, Journal of Finance, Portfolio Selection
1990, Harry Markowitz shared Nobel Prize, dominant approach used to manage risk and return within financial markets
1981, F.Warren McFarian, Portfolio Approach to Information Systems, HBR, to employ a risk-based approach to the selection and management of IT projects.
1990s, a broader use of ideas of portfolio management
1998, John Thorp, The Information Paradox. Portfolio management was used to manage risk and maximize return along a number of dimensions.
Present, portfolio management as central elements of good investment management
Portfolio Management, the overall picture
Content

Risk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait
in human beings.

Risk Reduction with Diversification
Components of Risk
Market or systematic risk: risk related to the macro economic factor or market index
Unsystematic or firm specific risk: risk not related to the macro factor or market index
Total risk = Systematic + Unsystematic
Two-Security Portfolios with Different Correlations
Portfolio Risk/Return, Correlation Effects
Relationship depends on correlation coefficient
-1.0 <  < +1.0
The smaller the correlation, the greater the risk reduction potential
If= +1.0, no risk reduction is possible

Content
What is project portfolio management

Portfolio Management is the project selection process and involves identifying opportunities: assessing the organizational fit; analyzing the costs, benefits, and risks; and developing and selecting a portfolio.
The art of project portfolio management is: doing the right thing, selecting the right mix of projects and adjusting as time evolves and circumstances unfold.
Portfolio Management is:
Defining goals and objectives – clearly articulate what the portfolio is expected to achieve
Understanding, accelerating, and making tradeoffs – determine how much to invest in one thing as opposed to something else
Identifying, eliminating,minimizing, and diversifying risk – select　a mix of investments that will avoid undue risk, will not exceed acceptable risk tolerance levels, and will spread risks across projects and initiatives to minimize adverse impacts
Monitoring portfolio performance – understand the progress that the portfolio is making toward the achievement of the goals and objectives
Achieving a desired objective – have the confidence that the desired outcome will likely be achieved given the aggregate of investments that are made
Portfolio Management is Not
Doing a series of project – specific calculations and analyses, such as return on investment, benefit-cost analysis, net present value, payback period, rate of return, and then adjusting them all to account for risk. – these are project specific
Collecting after-the-market information on projects to produce a report that the organization hopes will satisfy some organizational reporting requirement.
The benefits of Portfolio Management
Having a structure in place to select　the right projects and immediately remove the wrong projects
Placing resources where it matters, reducing wasteful spending
Linking portfolio decisions to strategic direction and business goals
Establishing logic, reasoning, and a sense of fairness behind portfolio decisions
Establishing ownership amongst the staff by involvement at the right levels
Content
Project Portfolio Management, Process & Technique
Four steps
Project Evaluation Matrix
Evaluation Criteria
Examples
Step 1: Define the Portfolio
First, establish the overall portfolio mission. This mission statement will be used to initially determine what projects are in or out of the portfolio.

The mission statement can be simple, like: The Intranet Portfolio covers all projects to be deployed on the corporate intranet.
Step 2: Gather the Projects
Now, gather all the projects together that you think might be in the portfolio.
This may not be the list you already have. Some projects, including duplicate efforts, may be underway in other parts of the organization.
Step 3: Begin Weeding
Once the project list is established, begin weeding the list down. Remove projects that:
Are duplicate efforts. Here is an opportunity to save money by pooling two or more efforts into a single project.
Do not meet the mission area. Some projects may be under your wing but do not fit in the mission area. Remove them from your portfolio and place them elsewhere.
Step 4: Begin Evaluating
Once the portfolio list is set, begin evaluating each project to determine what the overall portfolio will look like.
Using the four-quadrant matrix here, evaluate the projects against two major criteria:
What are the potential risks in implementing this project?
What are the potential benefits in implementing this project?
Project Evaluation Matrix
Using the Matrix
The matrix is used as a scoring tool to map projects against the evaluated level of risk and the evaluated potential beneficial impact of a project.
Projects are evaluated on both risk and benefit from low to high using a series of questions and scores.
Projects are then evaluated in the worksheet and decisions made for inclusion and balancing the portfolio.
Matrix Decision Regions
Evaluation Criteria
The Evaluation Matrix uses two basic criteria: Risk and Benefit.
Five sample risk areas:
Risk of Completion On Time (Schedule Risk)
Risk of Managing Multiple Organizations (Organizational Risk)
Risk of Technologies Used for the Application (Technological Risk)
Risk of Not Proceeding with the Project (Risk of Not Doing It)
Projects Implementation and Maintenance Costs
Five sample benefit areas:
Number of potential groups or users needing application
Projects Impact on Cross-Functional Activities
Projects Impact on Improving Internal Culture
Projects Impact on Improving External Customer Service
Estimated Benefit/Cost Ratio (Potential Savings or Profits)
Risk Assessment Scorecard- illustration
Benefits Assessment Scorecard - illustration
Plot the Project on the Matrix
What is the difference
Portfolio Management in the financial market

Project management
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